PTA Industrial Market Report Monthly (May 2017)

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PTA Industrial REport Monthly

May 2017

Catalogue

I. Market Summary in May 2017

II. Market Brief

2.1 Assessment Price

2.2 Market Dynamics

2.3 Market Price Movement

III. PTA Units' Utilisation Rate

3.1 Utilisation Rate

3.2 PTA Units Dynamics

IV. Profit

V. Upstream

5.1 International Crude Oil

5.2 PX Market

5.3 PET chip (polyester chip)

5.4 PSF (polyester staple fiber)

5.5 PFY(polyester filament yarn)

5.6 Polyester Bottle Chip

VI. Market Forecast and Analysis

VII. PTA Market Price Summary May 2017

VIII. PTA Import and Export Customs Data April 2017

I. Market Summary

PTA market in May run small rebound

PX in May run in shock fluctuation

Downstream polyester production and sales run well, utilisation rate at high level

II. Market Brief

2.1 Assessment Price

 Fig. I   Chinese PTA Price Assessment Trend Curve

By 31^st May, Chinese PTA market price assessment is RMB4,700/mt, shed RMB100/MT from April.

2.2 Market Dynamics

Fig. II   Chinese PTA Market Price Trend

Chinese PTA spot market experienced a hit-low then rebound before it closed at sharp low. By 26 May, East China's PTA market keep at RMB4,710/mt, shed RMB40 from April, down 0.84% m-o-m. USD Price keep at USD615/mt, shed 5 dollars from April, down 0.64% m-o-m.

2.3 Market Price Movement

Chart I. Chinese PTA Market Price Summary Monthly

	26 April	30 May	UP/-DOWN weekly	Unit
E.China RMB	4650	4710	+60	RMB/mt
USD Price	620	614	-6	USD/mt

III. Utlisation Rate Dynamics

3.1 Utilisation Rate

Chart II. Chinese PTA Utilisation Rate Update Monthly

Region	4-28	5-31	M-o-M
China	77%	68.5%	-8.50%

3.2 PTA Units Dynamics

Chart III. Chinese PTA Units Dynamics

Company/Plant	Capacity (‘0000 mt)	Utilisation Rate	Remarks
Xianglu Petrochem	150	0%
Xianglu Petrochem	150	0%
Xianglu Petrochem	150	0%
Ningbo Taihua	120	100%	Restart 21st May 2017
Yisheng Hainan Petrochem	220	100%
Shanghai Yadong Petrochem	70	100%
Zhuhai BP	110	100%
Zhuhai BP	125	100%	Shutdown for turnaround in mid June
Ningbo Sanling	70	0	Shutdown for 35 days on 29th April
Fareast Petrochem	140	0%
Yisheng Petrochem (Ningbo)	70	0	Shutdown on 5th May
Yisheng Petrochem (Ningbo)	220	0	Shutdown for 12 days since 24th May
Yisheng Petrochem (Ningbo)	200	100%
Yisheng Dahua (Ningbo)	200	100%
Yisheng Dahua (Ningbo)	175	100%
Yisheng Dahua (Ningbo)	195	100%
Pengwei Petrochem	90	100%
Jialong Petrochem	60	100%
Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co.	64	100%
Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co.	31	100%
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem	40	0	shutdown 24 April~23 May
Sinopec Yangtze Petrochem	35	0%
Sinopec Yangtze Petrochem	65	0	Shutdown from 28 May
Sinopec Tianjin Petrochem	34	100%
PetroChina Liaoyang Petrochem	48	0%
PetroChina Liaoyang Petrochem	32	0%
Sinopec Luoyang Petrochem	32	100%
Jiangyin Hanbang	60	0%
Jiangyin Hanbang	110	100%	Plan to shutdown in June
Jiangyin Hanbang	110	100%	Plan to shutdown in June
Sanfangxiang	120	100%
Sanfangxiang	120	100%
Hengli Petrochem (Dalian)	220	100%
Hengli Petrochem (Dalian)	220	100%
Hengli Petrochem (Dalian)	220	100%
Honggang Petrochem	150	100%
Tongkun Jiaxing Petrochem	150	100%

IV. Profit

Fig. III  Chinese PTA Theoretical Production Profit Curve

Currently Chinese PTA plants’ production cost at RMB4916/mt (processing cost RMB600/mt), up 30 yuan from April. Chinese PTA plants are averagely loss of RMB206/mt.

V. Upstream

5.1 International Crude Oil

Fig. IV  International Oil Price Trend Curve Monthly by May 2017

International oil price keep on rising after a break slip in May, mostly reflecting better expectation on cut production. By market closing on 30th May, WTI at USD45.52~51.47 per barrel, Brent at USD48.38~54.15 per barrel.

Early May, Libya's output recovered, while Nigeria was expected with a possible rally, meantime, OPEC indicated that cut production volume could not be further enlarged. Market mood turned short, then international oil price came sharply down. Mid May, US oil inventory decreased to a large degree, Iraq indicated would support an extension to cut production agreement, while Saudi Arab and Russia supported extension till 2018. Market long position was further encouraged. International oil price was on track of climbing. Late May, Saudi Arab and Iraq said OPEC were inclined to a 9 months extension of cut production, which was supported by non-OPEC oil producing countries such as Mexico, pushing oil price going on rebound. End May, oil price came small fall back.

5.2  PX Market

Fig. V  Asian PX Market Price Trend Update(May 2017)

PX price was below USD800/mt on tumbling oil price in early May, even though some PX units under turnaround. Mid-May,PX price came climbing trend driven by rising PTA market price and rebounding oil price. Late May, a fire accident in an aromatic unit in South Korean led to sudden shutdown of its PX unit, which contributes to the raise of PX price. However, as the result of frozen production meeting held on 25th was not as expected by market, oil price sharply down, dragging the PX price jump, but later rebound. By end May, Asian PX price maintained at USD786.33/MT fob South Korea, and USD806.33/mt CFR China.

Contract order front, Sinopec released its settlement price of PX at RMB6,840/mt, and June listed price at RMB6,850/mt. Asian ACP front, currently mainstream PX palnts offered at USD890-910/mt, ACP bidding currently maintained at USD730-760/mt. Big distance between buying side and selling side.

PX Unit front: FPC (Formosa Plastics Cop.) planned to restart its No.3 aromatic unit located in Mailiao. No.3 aromatic unit annually produce 900,000mt of PX, 640,000mt of benzene, and 240,000mt of OX. The Mailiao unit was shutdown for regular turnaround in mid-April. South Korean SK had its 100million capacity PX unit (located in Ulsan) shutdown for about10 days turnaround on 21st May due to malfunction of unit. The another 2 PX units in Ulsan are now running as normal. South Korean Hyundai planned a shutdown of its 1# aromatic unit located in Daesan for about 40 days turnaround in mid-August. The Daesan unit could annually produce 120,000mt of benzene and 380,000mt of PX. Its 2# aromatic unit, with annual capacity 800,000mt of PX and 130,000mt of benzene, has no turnaround plan within this year. Shanghai Petrochem's 600,000mt capacity PX unit is now running normally from its restart since 13th May. Sinopec Qilu Petrochem's 70,000mt annual capacity PX unit as planned shut down on 15th May for annually big trouble shooting for about 45 days, and is scheduled to restart at end June. Japanese Tonen's 190,000mt annual capacity PX unit, located in Sakai, was scheduled shutdown in the 3rd week of May. South Korean Hanwha's No.2 aromatic unit, located in Daesan, shut down since 10th May for de-bottleneck capacity extension, for about 50 days, this unit's capacity now is 1.06 million metric ton per year, and after extension it would reach 1.26 million metric ton of PX per year, and bezene output from current 420,000mt to 470,000 metric ton per year.

5.3  PET Chip (polyester chip) Market

in May 2017, Chinese PET chip (polyester chip) market was running downtrend before rally in end of month. Early May, high inventory pull PET chip market an extension in downtrend. Mid May, high inventory level of semi-gloss chip pushed plants strongly willing to de-stock, while downstream look forward to declining price, enlarging such drop. Gloss chip supply was tight, with firm market offer. End May, PTA and glycol were in shock uptrend, a cost pressure weighing on PET chip's follow ing rise. By now, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regional semi-gloss chip market at RMB6,650-6,700/mt, gloss chip at RMB6,750-6,800/mt, discussion reference price.

5.4  PSF (polyester staple fiber)

After Chinese holiday, PSF (polyester staple fiber) market price revised down on selling pressure from plants. Mid May, PSF market continue the fall as dragged by sliding oil and raw materials and price competition in North China market. Dowstream were generally purchasing on demand and bargain down the price, while PSF plants' inventory were increasing. End May, market players' sentiment was lifted on rising oil price and suring PTA and glycol market. Downstream was positive in purchasing, pulling plants' inventory decline. PSF market price follow and rise. At present, as raw material market return back and consolidate, PSF's upstread was impeded. By now, Jiangsu mainstream PSF market run stable, first-tier brand concluded at RMB 7,600-7,700 yuan/mt; other mainstream discussion at RMB 7,450-7,500 yuan/mt EX-Work.

5.5  PFY(polyester filament yarn)

By now, Jiangsu and Zhejiang PFY(polyester filament yarn) market, DTY, FDY, POY offer at RMB 9,250/mt, RMB8,100/mt,RMB7,700/mt.

5.6 Polyester Bottle Chip

Early May, Chinese polyester bottle chip market glide RMB50-100 yuan/mt. Mid May, some plants' price dropped by 50-100 yuan/mt; later, plants revise up by 250 yuan/mt on boosting spot market driven by gaining polyester raw material's futures market. End May, plants' price surged by 250-500 yuan/mt fueled by strengthened glycol e-market. Chinese polyester bottle chip market in May revised up 300 yuan/mt, up 4.23%. By now, East China offer at 7,400-7,500/mt, discussion at 7,150-7,300 yuan/mt; South China offer at 7,450-7,500 yuan/mt, discussion at 7,200-7,350 yuan/mt.

VI. Market Forecast and Analysis

1. International crude oil

At present international crude oil price in shock fluctuation, fall and rally in uncertain direction. 

2. PTA processing charge narrowed

At present PTA processing charge at 300-400 yuan/mt or so, no much space for further narrow.

3. PTA utilisation rate at stability

Chinese PTA units’ utilisation rate keep within 70%. Later, some large units will shut down.

4. Downstream polyester production and sales run better

VII. PTA Makret Price Monthly Summary

Chart IV. Chinese PTA Plants’Listed Price Monthly (May 2017)

Month	Sinopec		Zhuhai BP		Yisheng Petrochem		Hengli Petrochem
	Listed Price	Settlement Price	Listed Price	Settlement Price	Listed Price	Settlement Price	Listed Price	Settlement Price
Jan	5400	5520	5600	5520	5500	5307	5350	5520
Feb	5900	5950	5950	5950	5700	5555	6100	5950
Mar	5900	5400	5950	5950	5700	5213	5800	5400
April	5400	5150	5400	5150	5100	4958	5500	5150
May	5150	5030	5200	5000	5000		5200	5030
June	5100						5100

VIII. Chinese PTA Import and Export Customs Data Monthly (April 2017)

Chart V. Chinese PTA Import/Export Data Monthly (April 2017)

Import	Export
Volume in April: 27445.21 (mt)	Volume in April: 58037.16 (mt)
Volume Jan-April: 119785.8 (mt)	Volume Jan-April: 212191.12 (mt)
Avg.Price in April: 660.79 (USD/mt)	Avg.Price in April: 675.91 (USD/mt)
M-o-M：-2.17%	M-o-M：-5.56%
Y-o-Y：-25.75%	Y-o-Y：-32%
Jan-April YoY：-36%	Jan-April YoY：-20.3%

   

According to Chinese customs, China imported 27,445.21mt of PTA in April 2017, from January to April totalled 119,785.8mt, import value in April 18.1356 million dollars, from January to April import value 79.7315 million dollars, the average import price at 660.79 USD/mt, from January to April the average import price at 665.62 USD/mt, import volume down 2.17% M-o-M, and down 25.75% Y-o-Y, from January to April the volume done 36% Y-o-Y.

   

China exported 58,037.16mt of PTA in April 2017, from January to April totalled 212,191.12mt, April exported 39.228 million dollars, from January to April exported 14.24963 million dollars, averaged export price in April 675.91 dollars/mt, from January to April the averaged price at 671.55 dollars/mt, export volume down 5.56% M-o-M, and down 32% Y-o-Y, from January to April the volume down 20.3% Y-o-Y.

End

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Overhaul Period of EPDM Unit Will Be Over and New Units May Be Put into Operation in Q4

In general, the recent Chinese EPDM market was stable and weak, terminal demand was below the average, part of the downstream rubber products manufacturing orders in the chain declined significantly M-O-M.

During the past, the planned shutdowns in Chinese EPDM units would be carried out from April to May. But so far, only Ningbo SK had taken part in overhaul work for a month while other manufacturers were basically in normal operation from April to May. At present, the market shows that Jilin Petrochemical may improve units later with a long shutdown period. Changzhou Arlanxeo will be overhauled at the later stage. Ningbo SK units may run normally until around October, while Shanghai Sinopec Mitsui Elastomers units have no shutdown plans in short term. Most of manufacturers still wait and see with adjustment for the production plan at any time.

　　

In international market, Netherlands Arlanxeo units restart in May, and part of Kumho production is still closed at present with whole plant overhaul season tends to end; partial unit overhaul will be performed in Q3.

The 250,000 ton / year EPDM unit of Shandong EC Chemical  is scheduled to start up at the end of the year. It is understood that the main units and related equipment are being installed nervously and scheduled to run in October 2017. Foreign installations are under construction only in Saudi Arabia and South Korea, both of which are scheduled to be completed and put into operation in Q4 in relatively concentrated period.

In addition, EPDM projects in Yanshan Petrochemical and Yuhuang Petrochemical are still in the planned state because Many manufacturers shrink back at the sight of serious losses from EPDM especially from 2015 to 2016 and technology limitation of pre-construction unit as well as high risk.

。。。。。。

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Global methanol industrial distribution in 2016 China still takes the leads by ECPRAMS.NET

Global methanol industrial distribution in 2016

China still takes the leads

1. Introduction of Capacity and Output of International Methanol Industry

Fig. 2010-2016 Global Capacity and Production Data For Methanol

From the above figure, we can see a rapid growth of global supply and demand for methanol. In 2010, the global methanol production capacity reached 64 m tons, while in 2011 of 79.5 m tons, with an average annual increasing rate of more than 10 m tons, yet the demand growths were lagging far behind the capacity growth. The average operating rate of the methanol unit was maintained at around 60%-65% from 2010 to 2011 due to overcapacity. Since 2012, the situation of global methanol overcapacity has been effectively alleviated, driven by the rapid development of methanol to gasoline, methanol to dimethyl ether and methanol to olefins, especially China's massive methanol olefins projects were put into operation in 2015, which pulled global demand for methanol to 85 m tons and the average operating rate of the methanol plant recovered to around 80%. In 2016, the global capacity of methanol will reach 135 m tons, and the output will be around 100 m tons.

2. Analysis For the Supply Direction of Methanol in the Major Regions around the World

Fig. Global Supply Direction Map of Major Methanol Regions around the World in 2016

In 2016, new trade flow directions to Asia (mainly China) were from Americas, including the United States, Trinidad, Venezuela and Tobago. The reduced trade flow directions were from Middle East to America, Europe and Southeast Asia, etc. For international methanol trade changes over the next 4-5 years, we believe that the new supply side is mainly in the United States and Iran, while the demand side is mainly in china, so in the future U.S. supply to China will gradually increase, while the South America will also choose to trade arbitrage in China under the crowding out of its own increased capacity, the Iranian region will also increase its trade with China and may return to the European and American markets for a share of the competition.

3. Analysis For Global Downstream Demand Structure of Methanol

Fig. 2013 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio

Fig. 2014 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio

Fig. 2015 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio

Fig. 2016 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio

As can be seen from the 2013-2016 global demand-consumption allocation ratio, the world's fastest growing downstream items were coal / methanol to olefins in recent years, which were mainly in China. At present, the capacity of coal/methanol to olefins in China is around 12 m tons, the estimated consumption of methanol is over 30 m tons, accounting for about 41% of the total global consumption. However, the proportions of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid and MTBE in the traditional demand have declined.

Fig. Proportion Ratio Chart for Global Methanol Capacity in 2016

According to data from ECPRAMS,  the global methanol capacity reached 135 m tons in 2016. Among them, Asia's production capacity was up to 98.22 m tons, accounting for 72.5% of global total production capacity and ranking first. The second was South America, with capacity of 14.4 m tons, accounting for 10.63%. Europe has a capacity of 8.01 m tons, accounting for 5.91%, ranking third. In the Asian capacity distribution, China's methanol production capacity was 77.35 m tons in 2016, accounting for 78.75% of the total capacity in Asia, and accounting for 57.1% of global methanol production. China still holds the leading position in the global methanol industry.

4、结论

4. Conclusion

In the international methanol market, the key player is Asia; while in Asian market, the key player is China. By definition, China's methanol production and production capacity combination will have a greater impact on the inland market, while the Renminbi in inland market will continue to be closely linked to the US dollar. China's proportion in global market will rise to around 78% to continue the first position.

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China's tyre export surging in Q1 2017

According to ECPRAMS data, from January to March, total exports of HS CODE 40112000(new type of pneumatic rubber tire used in passenger vehicle or freight vehicle) were 7.2525 million tons, up by 1.8% Y-O-Y. The top ten tire enterprises’ total exports of HS code 40112000 item is 307,310 tons in all, accounting for about 42.37% of total exports. In view of individual enterprise, the top ten enterprises exports were all more than 20,000 tons, among which Zcrubber and Triangle exported 47,610 tons and 41460 tons respectively.

Even though Zcrubber and Triangle among top ten enterprises exported more than 40,000 tons, the exports increase was moderate compared with the same period last year. It could be observed, that the deployment of these enterprises is in proper arrangement in market abroad, with products exported to more than 150 countries. In all exporting countries, the US market is a key target country for export, 8600 tons of tires were exported to the United States in Q1 2017, which accounted for 20% of the total export volume of the plant. The triangle copmany also exported to nearly 150 countries, including Mexico which is the largest target country, exported 3100 tons of tires in total, accounting for about 10% of the total exports of the plant. The volume exporting to the United States took only 3.6%.

The increase of Prinx Chengshan was up to 55.32%, which top the growth among the top ten enterprises. From all its target countries, we could observe its key oversea market is America, with totally 8650 tons of tires export in Q1, accounting for about 42.2% of the total export volume of the plant.
 ......

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MMA Prices Not Affected By Fluctuations And Remain Stable

In H2 of April, MMA market entered into a period of rest which may last for a month after severe turbulence. The prices in all the primary markets remained stable for two consecutive months, while in Secondary Market of East China even fell from top value ending the mad state spawned by the export market from March to April and returned back to appropriate prices which in reasonable difference level with the primary markets. Market sentiments from all parties also gradually passed into a sage mode, which holds relatively steady opinions towards future trend.

According to ECPRAMS’s tracking, intensive inquiries were covered by several major exporters towards Chinese MMA traders as main purchasing objects in last two working days of second week in May, the initial negotiation price was at RMB17,800/Mt.  At the same time, 200kt/a MMA unit in Lucite at Britain has announced force majeure, MMA unit in Evonik at America and Europe also has also entered the case of regular maintenance, so the secondary markets were driven a little. In addition, the relevant aspects have also tasted the sweetness due to remaining booming market sense, so the local market was rapidly warming.

As a result, MMA suppliers immediately adjust the price above RMB18,000/Mt. They still tend to stable prices for contract users with the supply principle of insured quantity.

According to ECPRAMS’s statistics, Chinese MMA production capacity will scale up to 1.2 million tons by 2020. With the breaking and upgrading of technical barriers, MMA overcapacity will be only a matter of time in China. Meanwhile, as the service life of some older MMA devices in Europe and the United States continue to increase, their risks are increasing simultaneously. In the long run, China's increase in MMA exports will be inevitable.

......

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China's petroluem coke market movement in the Q1 of 2017

Petroleum coke output in the first quarter of 2017 was 7.13 million metric tonnes, up by 0.9% M-O-M and 8.53% Y-O-Y. From perspective of component data,  Chinese production have increased from January to March, among which the the largest increase occurred in January, up by 8.53% Y-O-Y.

Judging from the specific group component data, local refineries increased considerably while state-owned plants increased moderately. In the first quarter, the average operating rate of coking units in Shandong Province was 62.36%, up by 6.82% Y-O-Y. As a consequence, the increase of operating rate will directly increase the output of petroleum coke.

In the first quarter of 2017, total imports of petroleum coke was 136.27/mt, up by 50.62% Y-O-Y. Viewed from monthly data, Petroleum coke imports remained at a reasonable level in January and February, but  imports suddenly increased in March, up by 82.96% Y-O-Y.

From the view of specific customs data,  imports from the United States increased significantly, and the Nanjing Customs topped the volume, the main reason is that imported coke traders added orders in fourth quarter of 2016 and first quarter of 2017 due to great demand in Chinese petroleum coke and coal market, while there were 2-3 months lag phase from USA to China, so petroleum coke imports has increased greatly in March. ECPRAMS predicted that petroleum coke imports will remain at such a high level in the next second quarter.

In the first quarter of 2017, petroleum coke exports were only 16.25/mt, down by 18.3% Y-O-Y. From perspective of  monthly data, the export volume was lowest in February due to continued hot sales in Chinese market.

......

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China imported 618,300 metric tons of waste PE in Q1 2017

China imported 618,300 metric tons of waste PE in Q1 2017, slide by 4.18% from last quarter, and increase by 21.64% Y-o-Y. March had the biggest import volume......China has relatively larger demand for recycle PE from US and Germany, imported 75,200 metric tons and 71,100 metric tons respectively.Among the imported items, high pressure products take the most share up to 90%. China's domestic market demand more film from US, Germany an Japan, but Japan's film had higher price and no much supply......


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