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PTA Industrial REport Monthly
May 2017
Catalogue
I. Market Summary in May 2017
II. Market Brief
2.1 Assessment Price
2.2 Market Dynamics
2.3 Market Price Movement
III. PTA Units' Utilisation Rate
3.1 Utilisation Rate
3.2 PTA Units Dynamics
IV. Profit
V. Upstream
5.1 International Crude Oil
5.2 PX Market
5.6 Polyester Bottle Chip
VI. Market Forecast and Analysis
VII. PTA Market Price Summary May 2017
VIII. PTA Import and Export Customs Data April 2017
I. Market Summary
PX in May run in shock fluctuation
Downstream polyester production and sales run well, utilisation rate at high level
II. Market Brief
2.1 Assessment Price
Fig. I Chinese PTA Price Assessment Trend Curve
By 31st May, Chinese PTA market price assessment is RMB4,700/mt, shed RMB100/MT from April.
2.2 Market Dynamics
Fig. II Chinese PTA Market Price Trend
Chinese PTA spot market experienced a hit-low then rebound before it closed at sharp low. By 26 May, East China's PTA market keep at RMB4,710/mt, shed RMB40 from April, down 0.84% m-o-m. USD Price keep at USD615/mt, shed 5 dollars from April, down 0.64% m-o-m.
2.3 Market Price Movement
Chart I. Chinese PTA Market Price Summary Monthly
26 April
|
30 May
|
UP/-DOWN weekly
|
Unit
| |
E.China RMB
|
4650
|
4710
|
+60
|
RMB/mt
|
USD Price
|
620
|
614
|
-6
|
USD/mt
|
III. Utlisation Rate Dynamics
3.1 Utilisation Rate
Chart II. Chinese PTA Utilisation Rate Update Monthly
Region
|
4-28
|
5-31
|
M-o-M
|
China
|
77%
|
68.5%
|
-8.50%
|
3.2 PTA Units Dynamics
Chart III. Chinese PTA Units Dynamics
Capacity
(‘0000 mt)
|
Utilisation Rate
|
Remarks
| |
Xianglu Petrochem
|
150
|
0%
| |
Xianglu Petrochem
|
150
|
0%
| |
Xianglu Petrochem
|
150
|
0%
| |
Ningbo Taihua
|
120
|
100%
|
Restart 21st May 2017
|
Yisheng Hainan Petrochem
|
220
|
100%
| |
Shanghai Yadong Petrochem
|
70
|
100%
| |
Zhuhai BP
|
110
|
100%
| |
Zhuhai BP
|
125
|
100%
|
Shutdown for turnaround in mid June
|
Ningbo Sanling
|
70
|
0
|
Shutdown for 35 days on 29th April
|
Fareast Petrochem
|
140
|
0%
| |
Yisheng Petrochem (Ningbo)
|
70
|
0
|
Shutdown on 5th May
|
Yisheng Petrochem (Ningbo)
|
220
|
0
|
Shutdown for 12 days since 24th May
|
Yisheng Petrochem (Ningbo)
|
200
|
100%
| |
Yisheng Dahua (Ningbo)
|
200
|
100%
| |
Yisheng Dahua (Ningbo)
|
175
|
100%
| |
Yisheng Dahua (Ningbo)
|
195
|
100%
| |
Pengwei Petrochem
|
90
|
100%
| |
Jialong Petrochem
|
60
|
100%
| |
Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co.
|
64
|
100%
| |
Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co.
|
31
|
100%
| |
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochem
|
40
|
0
|
shutdown 24 April~23 May
|
Sinopec Yangtze Petrochem
|
35
|
0%
| |
Sinopec Yangtze Petrochem
|
65
|
0
|
Shutdown from 28 May
|
Sinopec Tianjin Petrochem
|
34
|
100%
| |
PetroChina Liaoyang Petrochem
|
48
|
0%
| |
PetroChina Liaoyang Petrochem
|
32
|
0%
| |
Sinopec Luoyang Petrochem
|
32
|
100%
| |
Jiangyin Hanbang
|
60
|
0%
| |
Jiangyin Hanbang
|
110
|
100%
|
Plan to shutdown in June
|
Jiangyin Hanbang
|
110
|
100%
|
Plan to shutdown in June
|
Sanfangxiang
|
120
|
100%
| |
Sanfangxiang
|
120
|
100%
| |
Hengli Petrochem (Dalian)
|
220
|
100%
| |
Hengli Petrochem (Dalian)
|
220
|
100%
| |
Hengli Petrochem (Dalian)
|
220
|
100%
| |
Honggang Petrochem
|
150
|
100%
| |
Tongkun Jiaxing Petrochem
|
150
|
100%
|
IV. Profit
Fig. III Chinese PTA Theoretical Production Profit Curve
Currently Chinese PTA plants’ production cost at RMB4916/mt (processing cost RMB600/mt), up 30 yuan from April. Chinese PTA plants are averagely loss of RMB206/mt.
V. Upstream
5.1 International Crude Oil
Fig. IV International Oil Price Trend Curve Monthly by May 2017
International oil price keep on rising after a break slip in May, mostly reflecting better expectation on cut production. By market closing on 30th May, WTI at USD45.52~51.47 per barrel, Brent at USD48.38~54.15 per barrel.
Early May, Libya's output recovered, while Nigeria was expected with a possible rally, meantime, OPEC indicated that cut production volume could not be further enlarged. Market mood turned short, then international oil price came sharply down. Mid May, US oil inventory decreased to a large degree, Iraq indicated would support an extension to cut production agreement, while Saudi Arab and Russia supported extension till 2018. Market long position was further encouraged. International oil price was on track of climbing. Late May, Saudi Arab and Iraq said OPEC were inclined to a 9 months extension of cut production, which was supported by non-OPEC oil producing countries such as Mexico, pushing oil price going on rebound. End May, oil price came small fall back.
PX price was below USD800/mt on tumbling oil price in early May, even though some PX units under turnaround. Mid-May,PX price came climbing trend driven by rising PTA market price and rebounding oil price. Late May, a fire accident in an aromatic unit in South Korean led to sudden shutdown of its PX unit, which contributes to the raise of PX price. However, as the result of frozen production meeting held on 25th was not as expected by market, oil price sharply down, dragging the PX price jump, but later rebound. By end May, Asian PX price maintained at USD786.33/MT fob South Korea, and USD806.33/mt CFR China.
Contract order front, Sinopec released its settlement price of PX at RMB6,840/mt, and June listed price at RMB6,850/mt. Asian ACP front, currently mainstream PX palnts offered at USD890-910/mt, ACP bidding currently maintained at USD730-760/mt. Big distance between buying side and selling side.
PX Unit front: FPC (Formosa Plastics Cop.) planned to restart its No.3 aromatic unit located in Mailiao. No.3 aromatic unit annually produce 900,000mt of PX, 640,000mt of benzene, and 240,000mt of OX. The Mailiao unit was shutdown for regular turnaround in mid-April. South Korean SK had its 100million capacity PX unit (located in Ulsan) shutdown for about10 days turnaround on 21st May due to malfunction of unit. The another 2 PX units in Ulsan are now running as normal. South Korean Hyundai planned a shutdown of its 1# aromatic unit located in Daesan for about 40 days turnaround in mid-August. The Daesan unit could annually produce 120,000mt of benzene and 380,000mt of PX. Its 2# aromatic unit, with annual capacity 800,000mt of PX and 130,000mt of benzene, has no turnaround plan within this year. Shanghai Petrochem's 600,000mt capacity PX unit is now running normally from its restart since 13th May. Sinopec Qilu Petrochem's 70,000mt annual capacity PX unit as planned shut down on 15th May for annually big trouble shooting for about 45 days, and is scheduled to restart at end June. Japanese Tonen's 190,000mt annual capacity PX unit, located in Sakai, was scheduled shutdown in the 3rd week of May. South Korean Hanwha's No.2 aromatic unit, located in Daesan, shut down since 10th May for de-bottleneck capacity extension, for about 50 days, this unit's capacity now is 1.06 million metric ton per year, and after extension it would reach 1.26 million metric ton of PX per year, and bezene output from current 420,000mt to 470,000 metric ton per year.
5.3 PET Chip (polyester chip) Market
in May 2017, Chinese PET chip (polyester chip) market was running downtrend before rally in end of month. Early May, high inventory pull PET chip market an extension in downtrend. Mid May, high inventory level of semi-gloss chip pushed plants strongly willing to de-stock, while downstream look forward to declining price, enlarging such drop. Gloss chip supply was tight, with firm market offer. End May, PTA and glycol were in shock uptrend, a cost pressure weighing on PET chip's follow ing rise. By now, Jiangsu and Zhejiang regional semi-gloss chip market at RMB6,650-6,700/mt, gloss chip at RMB6,750-6,800/mt, discussion reference price.
After Chinese holiday, PSF (polyester staple fiber) market price revised down on selling pressure from plants. Mid May, PSF market continue the fall as dragged by sliding oil and raw materials and price competition in North China market. Dowstream were generally purchasing on demand and bargain down the price, while PSF plants' inventory were increasing. End May, market players' sentiment was lifted on rising oil price and suring PTA and glycol market. Downstream was positive in purchasing, pulling plants' inventory decline. PSF market price follow and rise. At present, as raw material market return back and consolidate, PSF's upstread was impeded. By now, Jiangsu mainstream PSF market run stable, first-tier brand concluded at RMB 7,600-7,700 yuan/mt; other mainstream discussion at RMB 7,450-7,500 yuan/mt EX-Work.
By now, Jiangsu and Zhejiang PFY(polyester filament yarn) market, DTY, FDY, POY offer at RMB 9,250/mt, RMB8,100/mt,RMB7,700/mt.
5.6 Polyester Bottle Chip
Early May, Chinese polyester bottle chip market glide RMB50-100 yuan/mt. Mid May, some plants' price dropped by 50-100 yuan/mt; later, plants revise up by 250 yuan/mt on boosting spot market driven by gaining polyester raw material's futures market. End May, plants' price surged by 250-500 yuan/mt fueled by strengthened glycol e-market. Chinese polyester bottle chip market in May revised up 300 yuan/mt, up 4.23%. By now, East China offer at 7,400-7,500/mt, discussion at 7,150-7,300 yuan/mt; South China offer at 7,450-7,500 yuan/mt, discussion at 7,200-7,350 yuan/mt.
VI. Market Forecast and Analysis
At present international crude oil price in shock fluctuation, fall and rally in uncertain direction.
2. PTA processing charge narrowed
At present PTA processing charge at 300-400 yuan/mt or so, no much space for further narrow.
3. PTA utilisation rate at stability
Chinese PTA units’ utilisation rate keep within 70%. Later, some large units will shut down.
4. Downstream polyester production and sales run better
VII. PTA Makret Price Monthly Summary
Chart IV. Chinese PTA Plants’Listed Price Monthly (May 2017)
Month
|
Sinopec
|
Zhuhai BP
|
Yisheng Petrochem
|
Hengli Petrochem
| ||||
Listed Price
|
Settlement Price
|
Listed Price
|
Settlement Price
|
Listed Price
|
Settlement Price
|
Listed Price
|
Settlement Price
| |
Jan
|
5400
|
5520
|
5600
|
5520
|
5500
|
5307
|
5350
|
5520
|
Feb
|
5900
|
5950
|
5950
|
5950
|
5700
|
5555
|
6100
|
5950
|
Mar
|
5900
|
5400
|
5950
|
5950
|
5700
|
5213
|
5800
|
5400
|
April
|
5400
|
5150
|
5400
|
5150
|
5100
|
4958
|
5500
|
5150
|
May
|
5150
|
5030
|
5200
|
5000
|
5000
|
5200
|
5030
| |
June
|
5100
|
5100
| ||||||
VIII. Chinese PTA Import and Export Customs Data Monthly (April 2017)
Chart V. Chinese PTA Import/Export Data Monthly (April 2017)
Import
|
Export
|
Volume in April: 27445.21 (mt)
|
Volume in April: 58037.16 (mt)
|
Volume Jan-April: 119785.8 (mt)
|
Volume Jan-April: 212191.12 (mt)
|
Avg.Price in April: 660.79 (USD/mt)
|
Avg.Price in April: 675.91 (USD/mt)
|
M-o-M：-2.17%
|
M-o-M：-5.56%
|
Y-o-Y：-25.75%
|
Y-o-Y：-32%
|
Jan-April YoY：-36%
|
Jan-April YoY：-20.3%
|
According to Chinese customs, China imported 27,445.21mt of PTA in April 2017, from January to April totalled 119,785.8mt, import value in April 18.1356 million dollars, from January to April import value 79.7315 million dollars, the average import price at 660.79 USD/mt, from January to April the average import price at 665.62 USD/mt, import volume down 2.17% M-o-M, and down 25.75% Y-o-Y, from January to April the volume done 36% Y-o-Y.
China exported 58,037.16mt of PTA in April 2017, from January to April totalled 212,191.12mt, April exported 39.228 million dollars, from January to April exported 14.24963 million dollars, averaged export price in April 675.91 dollars/mt, from January to April the averaged price at 671.55 dollars/mt, export volume down 5.56% M-o-M, and down 32% Y-o-Y, from January to April the volume down 20.3% Y-o-Y.
End
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