oilchemdata service

2017年5月11日星期四

Zhongtian Hechuang's second PE production line in operation

Zhongtian Hechuang Energy Co., Ltd., China’s largest coal-to-polyolefins processing project, has started up its second polyethylene production line in early May 2017, following its successful operation of the 300kt/year LLDPE facility and 350kt/year PP facility since October 2016.

The newly started low density polyethylene (LDPE) plant is based on tubular process, and is currently running at 80% of the total capacity for LDPE LD605.

Zhongtian Hechuang’s major production facilities

Capacity (kt/year)	Facility	Process
1800	coal-to-methanol
1800	methanol-to-olefins
350	PP	loop process
350	PP	gas phase process
300	LLDPE	gas phase process
250	LDPE	tubular process
120	LDPE	autoclave processs
200	OCC

About Zhongtian Hechuang
Zhongtian Hechuang Energy is a joint venture between Sinopec (38.75%), China Coal Group (38.75%), Shenergy Group Co., Ltd. (12.5%), and Inner Mongolia Manshi Coal Group (10%).

Demonstration of coal deep processing
Located in Ordos, Inner Mongolia autonomous region, the project is expected to go into full operation in July, producing 1.37 million tons of polyethylene and polypropylenes each year from 25 million tons of coal.

"Our coal-to-chemicals project started production last October. It produces polyethylene and polypropylenes from coal, through a series of high-tech procedures, following the government's call for transforming resources in the ground," said Wang Jun, a spokesman from the joint venture which is owned by three State-owned companies and one private firm.

Polyolefins are extracted from petroleum, but China is a country with rich coal reserves and a shortage of crude oil, he said. "The coal-to-polyolefins project has an advantage in costs so we do not need to only sell crude coal with low profits."

The demonstration project is a good example of industrial upgrading, realizing coal deep processing from extensive production.

There will be more of such demonstration projects in the near future in Ordos and Baotou, two cities in the west of the Inner Mongolia autonomous region, thanks to its success in industrial transformation and rich mineral resources.

ECPRAMS release energy and chemical, rubber and plastics, steel, metals, agricultural commodity market data on regular basis, daily/weekly/monthly/annually.
This is a sample report. More data could be available via subscription.
Please send your inquiry email to: service@ecprams.net
or call at +86 18606382728
skype: oilchem-lz
Wechat: hanamiliu
Whatsapp: +86 18606382728
website: http://www.ecprams.net

2017年5月8日星期一

Direct-spun PSF price to start a second round of fall

Direct-spun PSF price hiked for around half a month after the Spring Festival and then retreated all the way from mid-Feb till end-March, totaling a fall of 1,500yuan/mt. In early-mid April, it slightly rebounded while started dropping again in late-April. And in May, such a decline sped up.

Tumbling commodity market due to tightened liquidity was credited for the first round of fall, which dampened previously positive market sentiment for sustained hike. And though the sentiment somewhat recovered in April, not strong polyester feedstock and gradually weakening demand still shed cloud on the market. Thus the sentiment turned bearish again.

In the first round of fall, direct-spun PSF cash flow showed very good on the whole as polyester feedstock cost declined more than direct-spun PSF and rigid demand also lent some support. Losses from high-standing inventory of finished goods though was quite great. As for this round of fall, bearish market sentiment and sluggish demand or high inventory were the main causes. Polyester feedstock performed range-bound, thus it sped up direct-pun PSF price fall while decreasing while slowing down the process while hiking. Some plants inventory spiked to around 15-25days after the International Labor Day. And as demand shows no sign of warming up, more plants moves to lower the price to boost sales, thus its cash flow drops from 600yuan/mt to 300-400yuan/mt.

At present, traded price declines to 7,200-7,400yuan/mt, and market players anticipate it to further fall to around 7,000-7,200yuan/mt. Should this level is reached in mid-late May while no support from polyester feedstock and commodity market appears, downstream concentrated restock may be limited.

Sustained price decrease, however, may benefit for demand expansion and future price rebound. On Apr 18, the Chinese government passed a bill to ban solid waste imports. Though when and how it will be carried out is uncertain, this would surely bring about much influence on recycled polyester fiber industry in the long run as domestic re-PET import dependency rate hit as high as 50%. Once the import is banned, shortened feedstock supply is expected to lead to hiking feedstock cost of recycled polyester industry, which is favorable for virgin PSF to grasp re-PSF market share. In the short term, amid low price spread of 900yuan/mt of virgin PSF and conventional close virgin PSF as well as anticipated supply shortage of re-PET on rainy days in June, virgin PSF demand is expected to recover.

China’s Fuel Ethanol Industry Expansion Accelerates?

China’s economy suffered the depression in the past several years, and officially fell into the so-called “new-normal” stage which meant the over 10% GDP in 2000s had gone. However, the supply-side reform in 2016 receives satisfactory results, and the economic driving force enhances in 2017. In particular, the corn industry reform in China successfully reduces the corn price to the lowest level in decades, and Beijing implements a serious of policies to deal with 30 million mt of overstock corn issue. For example, even risking a trade conflict with the U.S., Beijing still built the tariff barrier by raising the ethanol import tariff from 5% to 30% at the end of 2016.

2002–2025 China’s Fuel Ethanol Output Review and Forecast

Meanwhile, as regulated in the 13^th Five-Year Plan, China’s government makes great efforts on the renewable energy development and emission reduction. As the official alternative energy for emission reduction, Beijing plans to double China’s fuel ethanol production by 2020, and maybe quintuple it by 2025.

The international crude oil has been bogged down into a stalemate of surplus for several years. Although the crude oil price survives from the bottom - USD 27/bbl in early-2015 and rises back to USD 50 level, but the expendable power for further climbing has been exhausted. USD 50 level is an awkward position for all participants in the energy industry, and the crude oil fluctuates violently, bringing unsolid future to the energy market.

As the direct beneficiary, China’s fuel ethanol industry enjoys the great profit in 2017, and their operating rate skyrockets to over 90%, twice from that in 2016. Meanwhile, a serious of new projects are put into operation, construction or planning. As reported, SDIC Guangdong Bioenergy (150kt/a) and Shandong Fuen Biochemical (120kt/a) plan to enter the commercial production within 2017, and many other projects also accelerate the progress, such as Jiangsu Lianhai Biotechnology (200kt/a) and Kellin Chemicals (Zhangjiagang) (100kt/a).

Many new projects are also planned on the way. Inner Mongolia Shiqi Group’s 300kt/a fuel ethanol project initiated on Feb 15, 2017. It was planned to start the construction in June 2017, and put into use before the end of 2018. SDIC set up a project in Liaoning Tieling for a new 300kt/a corn-based fuel ethanol production, and the project was estimated to initiate within 2017.

China’s fuel ethanol industry developed very slowly in the past 15 years from the birth. As of the end of 2016, China’s fuel ethanol capacity was only 2,580kt/a, and the annual output was only 2,060kt/a. However, the blowout of the industry is coming. According to the statistics from SCI, the under-construction and proposed capacity is 3,140kt/a, and the target of 5,000kt/a fuel ethanol annual output in the 13^th Five-Year Plan is likely to be accomplished within 2020, theoretically.

However, turbulence exists. The carbon emission efficiency issue between the fossil and renewable energy, the food safety issue, the competition from the low-priced refined oil, the diplomatic tension on the imports, etc., all those issues and problems continue to faze the fuel ethanol industry in China and the worldwide. The environmental protection supervision may help, but China’s fuel ethanol enterprises may also face the capital deficit problem. Henan Tianguan Group had ambitious plans on expansion, however, they failed because of the capital chain break.

In conclusion, China’s fuel ethanol industry has a promised future, or more precisely, quadrupling in ten years, and becomes the bellwether of China’s renewable and clean energy industry. However, there is still a long and thorny way to go through all the challenges from agricultural structure reform, geopolitical conflicts, competitive power in the global market, energy generation upgrade in the national economy, etc. In a short term like in one to two years, China’s fuel ethanol output will remain largely stable, because all those mentioned projects need time to be built. The fuel ethanol supply is likely to be short in China, and the China’s fuel ethanol import window may reopen.

2016年11月6日星期日

China's refined copper industrial utilisation rate investigation and analysis by October 2016

Published by OILCHEMDATA.COM

Editor: Kahler

OILCHEMDATA was committed to investigate over 29 Chinese copper smelting enterprises' utilisation rate in October 2016, and acquired data as follow:
Total capacity of electrolytic copper: 8.6 million mt annually;
Total running capacity: 6.7 million mt annually;
Industrial utilisation rate: 77.7%, up 0.2% from September.

Details as shown below:

October saw a big fluctuation of discount and premium of electrolytic copper's price, low end RMB100 and high end RMB370 or so, and currently remaining between RMB100-150. While copper smelting plants' processing charge also edged up, as during 4th season 20 grade TC/RC smelting plants' processing charge at around USD104/mt, gain USD3~4/mt. Spot market fueled by rising copper's price, was running well in trading, as market supply was abundant and traders were positive to sales, meanwhile downstream purchase had small increase.

Smelting plants front, Yunnan Copper Industrial Company's revenue during January-September was RMB38.23 billion, down 20.49% year on year; Zijin Mining Industrial Corporation realized a net profit RMB886 million in a single season from July to September, surged by 154.42%; Tongling Nonferrous Company's revenue in 3rd season was RMB23.13 billion, up 4.22%. Tongling planned to build a biggest copper-based new material industrial base of China, with an effort to extend deep processing industrial chain through copper rods (line, cable), PCB, copper strip, copper bar, copper tube, copper powder, copper artwork, etc.; Zhongse Holdings' Baxiaku Copper Project has launched into production, with annually processing ability 30 million mt copper ore and 40 years of designed services years, and ore's average grade 0.36%. Shengzhou Copper Industrial Company located in Changzhou has upgraded, with shutdown of its electrolytic copper production and focus on copper products. From the overview, inventory in three places decreased, and each gaint smelting enterprise has no cutting of their output and no turnaround plan. OILCHEMDATA expect a small rise of utilisation rate in upcoming November.

oilchemdata.com release energy and chemical, rubber and plastics, steel, metals, agricultural commodity market data on regular basis, daily/weekly/monthly/annually.

This is a sample report. More data could be available via subscription.

Please send your inquiry email to: sales@oilchemdata.com

or call at +86 18606382728 skype: oilchem-lz

Wechat: 15269303260

website: http://www.oilchemdata.com

2016年10月15日星期六

Crude Oil Global Market Monthly Analysis by September 2016

International oil price in September was fluctuating with uptrend, but from the whole view it held steadiness. The major influencing factors include FED meeting and Frozen Production Meeting. By market close on September 29th, WTI 43.03-47.83 dollars/bbl, Brent 45.45-49.99 dollars/bbl.

Early the September, Russia and Saudi Arab agreed to colaborate on stabilizing oil market and increasing the possibility of limiting oil output. In addition, American crude oil inventory hit a 17-year low in a single week, pushing oil price to a big surge. At mid-September, EIA announced that global crude oil demand growth is slower than expected, and glut situation may extend to first half of the year 2017, added with concerns over possible growth of Negerian and Libya oil export, pulling oil price down. Late the September, American crude oil inventory once more slumped down unexpected, and FED announced no interest rate lift in September, and OPEC announced an agreement of limiting production has been reached, fueling oil price to rebound.

Market Forecast:

September 2016, WTI price weight gained 0.28 dollar/bbl than August, while Brent price weight down 0.01 dollar/bbl than August. WTI price average at USD45/bbl while Brent at USD47/bbl, flat from August.
Supply front, despite OPEC no longer sustain policy of non cutting production, the real output of both OPEC and Russia were still on a high track, besides, Libya and Iran are still with intention of growing their production. The downtrend of production in U.S. has been slowed remarkably, however the oversupply situation could not be altered soon. Demand front, US commercial crude oil inventory was decreasing for weeks but still stayed at above 500 million bbl level. Meanwhile, the refineries in Europe and US have entered turnaround season, followed with dropped utilisation rate. Economy view, Only China appeared with sign of turning well among global economies, with steadily running pace. Policy front, unclear foresight to interest rate lift by FED soften US dollars, which gave positive support to oil price. Geopolitical view, Middle East was relatively peaceful, with no marked influence. In spite of agreement of limiting production announced by oil producing contries, which has lifted the confience among traders, market still worried if it could be implemented, in addition, if the limited output volume is not as much as to relieve the pressure from glut, the fundamental bearish may extend. It is expected in October the international oil price still hard to surge.Supply-demand front will be still bearish, but end-bottom support maybe solid, which save it with limited space downtrend. Brent price may be running at USD45-52/bbl.

oilchemdata.com release energy and chemical, rubber and plastics commodity market data on regular basis, daily/weekly/monthly/annually.
This is a sample report. More data could be available via subscription.
Please send your inquiry email to: sales@oilchemdata.com
or call at +86 18606382728 skype: oilchem-lz
Wechat: 15269303260
website: http://www.oilchemdata.com

2016年10月7日星期五

Will anticipated market supply increase pull back the rising SBR price？

By October 2016,there were 11 ESBR (emulsion styrene butadiene rubber) produtive enterprises in China,with total capacity 1.47 million mt/a. This investigation cover all the ESBR production enterprises of China, including 2 in Northern China, 4 in Eastern China, 2 in Southern China, 2 in Northeast China and 1 in Northwest China.

Chinese SBR production output in September increased both year on year and month on month.
According to data released by oilcehmdata, September output increased by 8.91% m-o-m and 9% y-o-y. All units that shut down in August recovered production except long-term shutdown Lvgang unit and Lanzhou Petrochem extend its turnaround,especially Yangtze unit which shutdown since August has recovered production from September 20th,and now running 2 lines production with up to 90% utilisation rate.

January-September 2016 output down by 0.13%
China produced totally 655,100mt SBR rubber from January to September 2016, down by 0.13% year on year. Qilu Petrochem's SBR unit was running monthly output averagely at around 23,000mt since this year, higher than 20,000mt in 2015. From January to August 2016, Qilu company's SBR unit produced 185,000mt or so, up 13% from the same period of 2015. Secondly, Weitai and Lanzhou Petrochem's SBR output were seen with remarkably increase, and Shenhua and Zhechen company as well.
October 2016 Chinese SBR plants are planning a totally higher output
According to oilchemdata, October 2016 Chinese SBR plants are planning 81,500mt output, increasing 11,800mt from September, up 16.93% m-o-m. among which, 1502 planned a totally 39,850mt output (excluding 3150mt of 1502E),increasing 3950mt m-o-m; 1500E planned a totally 10,700mt output, increasing 4100mt m-o-m;oil rubber planned a totally 27,800mt output,increasing 2700mt m-o-m.

___________________________________________________________________
oilchemdata.com release energy and chemical, rubber and plastics commodity market data on regular basis, daily/weekly/monthly/annually.
This is a sample report. More data could be available via subscription.
Please send your inquiry email to: sales@oilchemdata.com
or call at +86 18606382728
skype: oilchem-lz
Wechat: 15269303260

website: http://www.oilchemdata.com

2016年10月2日星期日

Is synthesis rubber market in short of goods? Market talks

Guide:
the EX-work price of BR (butadiene rubber) in the early September has risen to a new high in 2016, up 25% year on year, which has brought topic among the most market players over its spread price to various sorts of natural rubber. So what is the engine to drive such rise since September? All those said "short of goods" is real in the market? Below is our analysis:

The import quantity of BR（butadiene rubber) decreased remarkably while on USD market BR supply is tight

According to the supervision by oilchemdata, China's total imported quantity of BR (butadiene rubber) and SBR (styrene butadiene rubber) decreased by 2.01% year on year, among which, SBR import quantity increased by 5.4% year on year, while BR import quantity decreased by 13.4%. The main reason that BR import quantity enlarge the drop from January to July 2016 is: first, butadiene's price stayed at high level. Some overseas BR rubber units was running at low utilisation rate due to high cost of butadiene; second, Gaoqiao's BR units shut down, followed by shutdown of Huayv's BR unit, while Sinopec has tight resources of BR, and Zhongyou raised its direct supply rate,so that there is rare flow of BR spot goods in market. Some market players consider to channel the import source, but USD offer to distributors seems high and good supply is tight, USD market traders are mostly wait-and-see; the third point, SBR import is relatively stable, and major SBR units overseas are running normally, with normal goods supply, but the increased import quantity can not set off the decrease of imported BR quantity. Therefore, the synthesis rubber import quantity was running at sliding trend from January to July 2016.

Producer-low profit, with low utilisation rate

Chinese SBR/BR Units Turnaround Plan August-September 2016
’000mt/year

According to the supervision by oilchemdata, China's total imported quantity of BR (butadiene rubber) and SBR (styrene butadiene rubber) decreased by 2.01% year on year, among which, SBR import quantity increased by 5.4% year on year, while BR import quantity decreased by 13.4%. The main reason that BR import quantity enlarge the drop from January to July 2016 is: first, butadiene's price stayed at high level. Some overseas BR rubber units was running at low utilisation rate due to high cost of butadiene; second, Gaoqiao's BR units shut down, followed by shutdown of Huayv's BR unit, while Sinopec has tight resources of BR, and Zhongyou raised its direct supply rate,so that there is rare flow of BR spot goods in market. Some market players consider to channel the import source, but USD offer to distributors seems high and good supply is tight, USD market traders are mostly wait-and-see; the third point, SBR import is relatively stable, and major SBR units overseas are running normally, with normal goods supply, but the increased import quantity can not set off the decrease of imported BR quantity. Therefore, the synthesis rubber import quantity was running at sliding trend from January to July 2016.

oilchemdata.com release energy and chemical, rubber and plastics commodity market data on regular basis, daily/weekly/monthly/annually.
Please send your inquiry email to: sales@oilchemdata.com
or call at +86 18606382728
website: http://www.oilchemdata.com

订阅：博文 (Atom)