Global methanol industrial distribution in 2016
China still takes the leads
1. Introduction of Capacity and Output of International Methanol Industry
Fig. 2010-2016 Global Capacity and Production Data For Methanol
From the above figure, we can see a rapid growth of global supply and demand for methanol. In 2010, the global methanol production capacity reached 64 m tons, while in 2011 of 79.5 m tons, with an average annual increasing rate of more than 10 m tons, yet the demand growths were lagging far behind the capacity growth. The average operating rate of the methanol unit was maintained at around 60%-65% from 2010 to 2011 due to overcapacity. Since 2012, the situation of global methanol overcapacity has been effectively alleviated, driven by the rapid development of methanol to gasoline, methanol to dimethyl ether and methanol to olefins, especially China's massive methanol olefins projects were put into operation in 2015, which pulled global demand for methanol to 85 m tons and the average operating rate of the methanol plant recovered to around 80%. In 2016, the global capacity of methanol will reach 135 m tons, and the output will be around 100 m tons.
2. Analysis For the Supply Direction of Methanol in the Major Regions around the World
Fig. Global Supply Direction Map of Major Methanol Regions around the World in 2016
In 2016, new trade flow directions to Asia (mainly China) were from Americas, including the United States, Trinidad, Venezuela and Tobago. The reduced trade flow directions were from Middle East to America, Europe and Southeast Asia, etc. For international methanol trade changes over the next 4-5 years, we believe that the new supply side is mainly in the United States and Iran, while the demand side is mainly in china, so in the future U.S. supply to China will gradually increase, while the South America will also choose to trade arbitrage in China under the crowding out of its own increased capacity, the Iranian region will also increase its trade with China and may return to the European and American markets for a share of the competition.
3. Analysis For Global Downstream Demand Structure of Methanol
Fig. 2013 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio
Fig. 2014 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio
Fig. 2015 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio
Fig. 2016 Global Methanol Downstream Demand Allocation Ratio
As can be seen from the 2013-2016 global demand-consumption allocation ratio, the world's fastest growing downstream items were coal / methanol to olefins in recent years, which were mainly in China. At present, the capacity of coal/methanol to olefins in China is around 12 m tons, the estimated consumption of methanol is over 30 m tons, accounting for about 41% of the total global consumption. However, the proportions of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid and MTBE in the traditional demand have declined.
Fig. Proportion Ratio Chart for Global Methanol Capacity in 2016
According to data from ECPRAMS, the global methanol capacity reached 135 m tons in 2016. Among them, Asia's production capacity was up to 98.22 m tons, accounting for 72.5% of global total production capacity and ranking first. The second was South America, with capacity of 14.4 m tons, accounting for 10.63%. Europe has a capacity of 8.01 m tons, accounting for 5.91%, ranking third. In the Asian capacity distribution, China's methanol production capacity was 77.35 m tons in 2016, accounting for 78.75% of the total capacity in Asia, and accounting for 57.1% of global methanol production. China still holds the leading position in the global methanol industry.
4、结论
4. Conclusion
In the international methanol market, the key player is Asia; while in Asian market, the key player is China. By definition, China's methanol production and production capacity combination will have a greater impact on the inland market, while the Renminbi in inland market will continue to be closely linked to the US dollar. China's proportion in global market will rise to around 78% to continue the first position.
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