International oil price in September was fluctuating with uptrend, but from the whole view it held steadiness. The major influencing factors include FED meeting and Frozen Production Meeting. By market close on September 29th, WTI 43.03-47.83 dollars/bbl, Brent 45.45-49.99 dollars/bbl.
Early the September, Russia and Saudi Arab agreed to colaborate on stabilizing oil market and increasing the possibility of limiting oil output. In addition, American crude oil inventory hit a 17-year low in a single week, pushing oil price to a big surge. At mid-September, EIA announced that global crude oil demand growth is slower than expected, and glut situation may extend to first half of the year 2017, added with concerns over possible growth of Negerian and Libya oil export, pulling oil price down. Late the September, American crude oil inventory once more slumped down unexpected, and FED announced no interest rate lift in September, and OPEC announced an agreement of limiting production has been reached, fueling oil price to rebound.
Market Forecast:
September 2016, WTI price weight gained 0.28 dollar/bbl than August, while Brent price weight down 0.01 dollar/bbl than August. WTI price average at USD45/bbl while Brent at USD47/bbl, flat from August.
Supply front, despite OPEC no longer sustain policy of non cutting production, the real output of both OPEC and Russia were still on a high track, besides, Libya and Iran are still with intention of growing their production. The downtrend of production in U.S. has been slowed remarkably, however the oversupply situation could not be altered soon. Demand front, US commercial crude oil inventory was decreasing for weeks but still stayed at above 500 million bbl level. Meanwhile, the refineries in Europe and US have entered turnaround season, followed with dropped utilisation rate. Economy view, Only China appeared with sign of turning well among global economies, with steadily running pace. Policy front, unclear foresight to interest rate lift by FED soften US dollars, which gave positive support to oil price. Geopolitical view, Middle East was relatively peaceful, with no marked influence. In spite of agreement of limiting production announced by oil producing contries, which has lifted the confience among traders, market still worried if it could be implemented, in addition, if the limited output volume is not as much as to relieve the pressure from glut, the fundamental bearish may extend. It is expected in October the international oil price still hard to surge.Supply-demand front will be still bearish, but end-bottom support maybe solid, which save it with limited space downtrend. Brent price may be running at USD45-52/bbl.
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2016年10月15日星期六
2016年10月7日星期五
Will anticipated market supply increase pull back the rising SBR price？
By October 2016,there were 11 ESBR (emulsion styrene butadiene rubber) produtive enterprises in China,with total capacity 1.47 million mt/a. This investigation cover all the ESBR production enterprises of China, including 2 in Northern China, 4 in Eastern China, 2 in Southern China, 2 in Northeast China and 1 in Northwest China.
Chinese SBR production output in September increased both year on year and month on month.
According to data released by oilcehmdata, September output increased by 8.91% m-o-m and 9% y-o-y. All units that shut down in August recovered production except long-term shutdown Lvgang unit and Lanzhou Petrochem extend its turnaround,especially Yangtze unit which shutdown since August has recovered production from September 20th,and now running 2 lines production with up to 90% utilisation rate.
January-September 2016 output down by 0.13%
China produced totally 655,100mt SBR rubber from January to September 2016, down by 0.13% year on year. Qilu Petrochem's SBR unit was running monthly output averagely at around 23,000mt since this year, higher than 20,000mt in 2015. From January to August 2016, Qilu company's SBR unit produced 185,000mt or so, up 13% from the same period of 2015. Secondly, Weitai and Lanzhou Petrochem's SBR output were seen with remarkably increase, and Shenhua and Zhechen company as well.
October 2016 Chinese SBR plants are planning a totally higher output
According to oilchemdata, October 2016 Chinese SBR plants are planning 81,500mt output, increasing 11,800mt from September, up 16.93% m-o-m. among which, 1502 planned a totally 39,850mt output (excluding 3150mt of 1502E),increasing 3950mt m-o-m; 1500E planned a totally 10,700mt output, increasing 4100mt m-o-m;oil rubber planned a totally 27,800mt output,increasing 2700mt m-o-m.
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This is a sample report. More data could be available via subscription.
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Chinese SBR production output in September increased both year on year and month on month.
According to data released by oilcehmdata, September output increased by 8.91% m-o-m and 9% y-o-y. All units that shut down in August recovered production except long-term shutdown Lvgang unit and Lanzhou Petrochem extend its turnaround,especially Yangtze unit which shutdown since August has recovered production from September 20th,and now running 2 lines production with up to 90% utilisation rate.
January-September 2016 output down by 0.13%
China produced totally 655,100mt SBR rubber from January to September 2016, down by 0.13% year on year. Qilu Petrochem's SBR unit was running monthly output averagely at around 23,000mt since this year, higher than 20,000mt in 2015. From January to August 2016, Qilu company's SBR unit produced 185,000mt or so, up 13% from the same period of 2015. Secondly, Weitai and Lanzhou Petrochem's SBR output were seen with remarkably increase, and Shenhua and Zhechen company as well.
October 2016 Chinese SBR plants are planning a totally higher output
According to oilchemdata, October 2016 Chinese SBR plants are planning 81,500mt output, increasing 11,800mt from September, up 16.93% m-o-m. among which, 1502 planned a totally 39,850mt output (excluding 3150mt of 1502E),increasing 3950mt m-o-m; 1500E planned a totally 10,700mt output, increasing 4100mt m-o-m;oil rubber planned a totally 27,800mt output,increasing 2700mt m-o-m.
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2016年10月2日星期日
Is synthesis rubber market in short of goods? Market talks
Guide:
the EX-work price of BR (butadiene rubber) in the early September has risen to a new high in 2016, up 25% year on year, which has brought topic among the most market players over its spread price to various sorts of natural rubber. So what is the engine to drive such rise since September? All those said "short of goods" is real in the market? Below is our analysis:
The import quantity of BR（butadiene rubber) decreased remarkably while on USD market BR supply is tight
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According to the supervision by oilchemdata, China's total imported quantity of BR (butadiene rubber) and SBR (styrene butadiene rubber) decreased by 2.01% year on year, among which, SBR import quantity increased by 5.4% year on year, while BR import quantity decreased by 13.4%. The main reason that BR import quantity enlarge the drop from January to July 2016 is: first, butadiene's price stayed at high level. Some overseas BR rubber units was running at low utilisation rate due to high cost of butadiene; second, Gaoqiao's BR units shut down, followed by shutdown of Huayv's BR unit, while Sinopec has tight resources of BR, and Zhongyou raised its direct supply rate,so that there is rare flow of BR spot goods in market. Some market players consider to channel the import source, but USD offer to distributors seems high and good supply is tight, USD market traders are mostly wait-and-see; the third point, SBR import is relatively stable, and major SBR units overseas are running normally, with normal goods supply, but the increased import quantity can not set off the decrease of imported BR quantity. Therefore, the synthesis rubber import quantity was running at sliding trend from January to July 2016.
Producer-low profit, with low utilisation rate
Chinese SBR/BR Units Turnaround Plan August-September 2016
’000mt/year
![]()
According to the supervision by oilchemdata, China's total imported quantity of BR (butadiene rubber) and SBR (styrene butadiene rubber) decreased by 2.01% year on year, among which, SBR import quantity increased by 5.4% year on year, while BR import quantity decreased by 13.4%. The main reason that BR import quantity enlarge the drop from January to July 2016 is: first, butadiene's price stayed at high level. Some overseas BR rubber units was running at low utilisation rate due to high cost of butadiene; second, Gaoqiao's BR units shut down, followed by shutdown of Huayv's BR unit, while Sinopec has tight resources of BR, and Zhongyou raised its direct supply rate,so that there is rare flow of BR spot goods in market. Some market players consider to channel the import source, but USD offer to distributors seems high and good supply is tight, USD market traders are mostly wait-and-see; the third point, SBR import is relatively stable, and major SBR units overseas are running normally, with normal goods supply, but the increased import quantity can not set off the decrease of imported BR quantity. Therefore, the synthesis rubber import quantity was running at sliding trend from January to July 2016.
oilchemdata.com release energy and chemical, rubber and plastics commodity market data on regular basis, daily/weekly/monthly/annually.
Please send your inquiry email to: sales@oilchemdata.com
or call at +86 18606382728
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the EX-work price of BR (butadiene rubber) in the early September has risen to a new high in 2016, up 25% year on year, which has brought topic among the most market players over its spread price to various sorts of natural rubber. So what is the engine to drive such rise since September? All those said "short of goods" is real in the market? Below is our analysis:
The import quantity of BR（butadiene rubber) decreased remarkably while on USD market BR supply is tight
Producer-low profit, with low utilisation rate
Chinese SBR/BR Units Turnaround Plan August-September 2016
’000mt/year
According to the supervision by oilchemdata, China's total imported quantity of BR (butadiene rubber) and SBR (styrene butadiene rubber) decreased by 2.01% year on year, among which, SBR import quantity increased by 5.4% year on year, while BR import quantity decreased by 13.4%. The main reason that BR import quantity enlarge the drop from January to July 2016 is: first, butadiene's price stayed at high level. Some overseas BR rubber units was running at low utilisation rate due to high cost of butadiene; second, Gaoqiao's BR units shut down, followed by shutdown of Huayv's BR unit, while Sinopec has tight resources of BR, and Zhongyou raised its direct supply rate,so that there is rare flow of BR spot goods in market. Some market players consider to channel the import source, but USD offer to distributors seems high and good supply is tight, USD market traders are mostly wait-and-see; the third point, SBR import is relatively stable, and major SBR units overseas are running normally, with normal goods supply, but the increased import quantity can not set off the decrease of imported BR quantity. Therefore, the synthesis rubber import quantity was running at sliding trend from January to July 2016.
oilchemdata.com release energy and chemical, rubber and plastics commodity market data on regular basis, daily/weekly/monthly/annually.
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